January 2026 Newsletter

2025 Columbus Industrial Year‑End Review + What’s Ahead for 2026

Happy New Year, everyone. As we head into 2026, this edition offers a data‑backed review of Columbus’ industrial performance — one of the strongest and most structurally sound markets in the country — and a forward look at the opportunities and challenges shaping the year ahead.

Columbus ended 2025 from a position of strength: ~9.4M SF of positive net absorption through Q3, tightening vacancy, and a pipeline that remains disciplined and demand‑driven. Below we break down the key trends, along with a new deep‑dive on how data center development reshaped the Central Ohio landscape in 2025.

📊 2025 Market Performance Overview

• Net Absorption: ~9.4M SF through Q3
• Vacancy: Improved to ~6.7% by year‑end (down from 8.2–8.7% mid-year)
• Rent Growth: Moderated to ~4.6% YOY by year‑end
• Total Leasing Activity: ~11.3M SF projected for 2025
• Investment Volume: $900 Million – $1.1 Billion expected

Tenant demand remained real, with a clear market preference for Class A modern logistics facilities and a shift toward quality over quantity, while developers maintained a disciplined approach to spec development.

📦 Leasing Activity

• Q1: 2.85M SF (seven deals >500K SF)
• Q2: –1.5M SF
• Q3: 5.5M SF (3.5M SF absorption in Q3 alone)
• Q4: ~1.5M SF projected

Demand for Class A bulk surged, surpassing all years from 2010–2020. Large users dominated, while sub‑100,000 SF activity fell 35% YoY.

🏢 Major 2025 Lease Transactions

• J. Boren & Sons Logistics — 1,277,851 SF
• AWS — 1,198,965 SF
• ODW — 864,000 SF
• Anduril Industries — 773,114 SF
• Ryder Logistics — 766,633 SF
• DHL — 755,160 SF

Licking County and Rickenbacker accounted for the majority of activity.

📉 Vacancy & Supply Dynamics

Vacancy tightened throughout the year:

• Start of 2025: 8.7%
• Q2: 8.7%
• Q3: 7.7%
• Year‑end: ~6.7%

Move‑outs by Big Lots and McKesson (354,676 SF) softened the first half, but strong absorption stabilized the market quickly.

Spec development slowed dramatically, with only 1.9M SF breaking ground and just 922,790 SF being delivered.

💵 Rental Rate Performance

• Q1–Q2: $6.00–$6.13 PSF NNN
• Q3: $6.13 PSF NNN
• Q4: ~$6.74 PSF NNN (weighted average)

Licking County remained the pricing leader with a 7.4% premium for modern bulk.

🌐 Submarket Highlights

🔥 Licking County

• Tightest vacancy in the metro (3.9%)
• Benefiting from Intel adjacency, advanced manufacturing investments, and severe land constraints
• Now the largest data center market in Ohio and top 10 in the U.S.
• Fastest rent growth and strongest leasing velocity

✈️ Rickenbacker Corridor

• The logistics epicenter of Central Ohio
• Continued to attract mega‑users and cargo‑driven distribution

🏦 Investment Sales & Capital Markets

A rebound year:

• Q1: $253M
• Q2: $272M
• Q3: $370.5M
• Full‑year estimate: $900M–$1.1B

Cap rates stabilized:

• Class A: 5.5%–6.0%
• Market-Wide: 6.0%–6.5%

Institutional buyers represented 63.6% of Q3 activity.

• Notable transactions included: 11555 Briscoe Pkwy — $136M (1,215,000 SF)

• 6241 Shook Rd — $118.8M (1,589,000 SF)
• 7409 Mink St SW — $89.05M (946,400 SF)
• 4448 Rickenbacker Pkwy East (McKesson BTS) — $67.4M (430,000 SF)

🏗️ Intel Update — The Long Game

Intel extended its fab timeline (2030 and 2031), but:

• ~$7B committed to date
• Supplier ecosystem expanding
• Licking County experiencing continued land constraints, infrastructure upgrades, and housing demand

Intel continues to set the long‑term economic trajectory for the region.

⚡ The Data Center Boom Becomes a Market Force

2025 marked an inflection point for data centers in Central Ohio, turning what was once a niche category into a primary driver of land absorption, infrastructure expansion, and capital investment.

1️⃣ Massive Power Demand Reshaped the Market

Data centers’ heavy power requirements accelerated:

• New substation planning and utility corridor expansions
• Higher competition for power‑served land
• Longer lead times for large‑scale users

2️⃣ Land Pricing Surged in Key Corridors

Data center developers targeted:

• Northeast Columbus / Licking County (Intel‑adjacent)
• West Jefferson / Hilliard
• Rickenbacker‑connected power hubs

This created:

• 2x and, in some cases, 3x pricing premiums on power‑served industrial sites
• Reduced availability of large contiguous land tracts
• Spillover push for logistics developers into outlying counties

3️⃣ Construction & Labor Pipelines Tightened

Contractor and engineering resources were redirected toward hyperscale projects, contributing to:

• Rising construction costs
• Longer timelines for tilt‑wall and mid‑box projects

4️⃣ Industrial Demand Patterns Shifted

While data centers do not generate traditional warehouse leasing, they produced several notable secondary impacts:

• Increased demand for 3PL, server logistics, and advanced‑manufacturing suppliers
• Absorption of specialized space (high‑power light industrial, component assembly, white‑space staging)

5️⃣ Market Stability Improved

Because data centers are long‑term, cap‑intensive, and non‑cyclical, their presence added structural support to the region’s economic base, mirroring how Intel reshaped long‑horizon growth planning.

🔮 2026 Outlook & Predictions

Demand Outlook: Positive

• 6–8M SF absorption expected
• Strong demand from defense, EV/battery, cold storage, and 3PL users
• E‑commerce leaning toward “just‑in‑case” inventories

Supply Outlook: Tight

• Limited spec in early 2026
• Mid‑box (100K–300K SF) most active
• Developers positioning for next mega‑user cycles

Rent Growth: 3–5%

• Licking County / Rickenbacker could reach 5–7%

Investment Outlook: Improving

• Stabilizing debt markets
• Mild cap rate compression likely
• Value‑add plays in older assets remain favorable

🎯 What to Expect in 2026

For Landlords:

• Flight to quality continues
• Incentives rise for mid‑box tenants
• Late‑2026 rent spikes possible as inventory thins

For Tenants:

• Limited options outside Class A mid‑box
• Start property search early (12–18 months)
• Lock in rates now ahead of broader 2026 rent growth

For Investors:

• Columbus remains a top‑tier Midwest industrial play
• Repositioning opportunities in aging stock
• Watch 2021–2022 loan maturities for distressed opportunities

🏁 Final Thoughts

Columbus exits 2025 as one of the most resilient industrial markets in the country, backed by nearly 10 million SF of absorption, tightening vacancy, diversified demand drivers, and a fast‑expanding ecosystem of technology, logistics, defense, and data infrastructure.

Data centers, Intel, Anduril and continued reshoring set the stage for a transformative multi‑year runway into 2026–2027 — and early movers will be the ones rewarded.